Governments face a deadline to update their national climate plans in early 2025, ten years after the adoption of the landmark Paris Agreement. Before that can happen, Americans face a crucial decision on Election Day that will have consequences for the entire world.
If the U.S. misses that deadline under a president who thinks it's no big deal, it could be a major blow to global efforts to curb climate change. This is not about the USA being the savior of the world. It's about cleaning up after yourself in the face of the global chaos it has caused and continues to cause.
What is at stake? Only “stressful impacts on people, the planet and the economy,” says the latest United Nations report on greenhouse gas emissions, released today.
We are a fossil fuel giant, a wolf in sheep's clothing
The US, like almost every other country in the world except Iran, Libya and Yemen, has ratified the Paris Climate Agreement and agreed to work together to prevent global warming from getting worse. The U.S. actions have a huge impact on the world, as the U.S. has historically produced far more greenhouse gas emissions than any other country and remains the second largest polluter in the world today. And despite the country's historic investments in clean energy under the Biden administration, the U.S. is still the world's leading oil and gas producer. We are a fossil fuel giant, a wolf in sheep's clothing, even as we agree to participate in international climate negotiations.
Average global temperatures today are about 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than before the Industrial Revolution. It may not sound like much, but wildfires, heat waves, droughts and storms have become much worse as a result.
Preventing worse climate change is not altruism – it is in our own interest. Hurricane Helene, which ripped through the southeastern United States this month, killing more than 220 people and leaving entire communities in ruins, was fueled by rising sea surface temperatures, made 200 to 500 times more likely by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are.
The Paris Agreement sets a target of stopping global warming to around 1.5°C and the UN report published today shows what is needed to prevent this target being exceeded. It's hard to read it without wincing. The actual title is: “No more hot air…please!”
“If only currently [national action plans] “If all measures are implemented and no further ambition is reflected in the new commitments, the best we can expect is catastrophic global warming,” says the United Nations Environment Program. Specifically, warming of up to 2.6 °C is expected over the course of a century under normal operation.
“No more hot air…please!”
However, according to the report, it is still technically feasible to maintain the 1.5 degree target if countries act quickly. Global emissions would have to fall by 42 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. That's no easy task considering the world is still moving in the opposite direction, with greenhouse gas emissions increasing by 1.3 percent year over year, according to the report.
Still, there are relatively easy ways to change things: solar and onshore wind power are already cheaper energy sources than fossil fuels in most parts of the world. The report also calls for increasing energy efficiency and electrifying homes and buildings.
The harder question is whether policymakers and voters agree with these solutions. The Republican platform says: “We will DRILL, BABY, DRILL.” Donald Trump says he would try again to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, something he did during his previous presidency before Joe Biden recommitted.
The last time Trump was elected president, I was at a UN climate conference in Marrakech, Morocco. “Today many Africans woke up horrified that we have a man in the White House who doesn't even accept that climate change is real – a president who has promised to support more fossil fuels and has promised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement . “ said Geoffrey Kamese, then senior program officer of Friends of the Earth Africa, at a press conference during the summit. “The people of this continent will pay with their lives for the results of the US elections.”
Members of the G20, which includes many of the world's largest economies except the African Union, pumped out 77 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, the new UN report says. The addition of the African Union doubles the number of countries, but the share of emissions only increases to 82 percent. This just goes to show that many of the countries most affected by climate change are paying the price for a problem that the world's richest countries are largely responsible for perpetuating.