Ten years ago, after the announcement of the iPhone 6, Tim Cook had something else to show the world: the first sizzle reel for the Apple Watch.
It's funny to watch that video today, especially when you focus on the features Apple was supposedly going to revolutionize the smartwatch category. There was the Digital Crown—a so-called breakthrough in input technology that let you scroll and zoom on what was essentially a small wrist computer. It had a Taptic Engine that would hum discreetly when a text or notification came through. Glances were supposed to be easily digestible nuggets of information, a sort of status update for your apps. And remember Digital Touch? That weird feature where you press two fingers on the screen and it would send a friend an animation of your heartbeat?
Let's not forget the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition for $10,000.
Fast forward a decade, and the Apple Watch success stories are completely different. Now they're full of people telling stories about how the Apple Watch saved their lives. Year after year, most of the new features focus on novel ways to close rings. Whatever you think of the Apple Watch, it's now the most popular smartwatch in the world and has been for years. In 2020, it sold more than the entire Swiss watch industry. It's an undeniable success. But what's next for the Apple Watch after 10 years?
The first Apple Watch came out during the golden age of fitness trackers. Fitbits and devices like the Jawbone Up dominated with their long battery life and simplicity. Smartwatches were more of a crapshoot. Pebble was popular among gadget nerds for its simplicity, but the company never caught on in the mainstream. Google was next to market with Android Wear in 2014, but as a platform it suffered from slow interfaces, questionable tracking accuracy, clunky form factors, and paltry battery life. Samsung had a few options on its Tizen operating system, but it struggled with many of the same issues. The same was true of the first Apple Watch. For most people, the smartwatch was too expensive a device that couldn't replace a fitness tracker or your smartphone. So what was the point of buying one?
No one had a good answer, not even Apple (which is probably why the Apple Watch's early marketing focused on fashion), and the answer wouldn't be found until 2017.
That's when Apple added LTE with the Series 3. Suddenly, the Apple Watch wasn't tethered to your phone. You could still call for help in an emergency. I remember calling my roommate to give me the illusion of safety while I was panicking on a walk. Safety was a compelling argument, albeit one tempered by still-sluggish performance. It certainly didn't help that that call completely drained my battery life in just 30 minutes. After I finished testing the Series 3, I went back to my Fitbit Alta HR—but my perception of the device as an unnecessary luxury had changed.
And then the real industry breakthrough came in 2018 with the Series 4. Now the Apple Watch had an FDA-cleared ECG that could detect atrial fibrillation. It could detect when you'd taken a bad fall and call for help on your behalf. On top of that, it could alert you when your heart rate went up abnormally high when it shouldn't. Your phone can't do that. Suddenly the Apple Watch was no longer a fancy toy that helped sort through notifications at best. It could save lives. And it did.
It turns out that health is the reason the average person buys a smartwatch. Anecdotally, it's the number one reason friends and family ask me about smartwatches. I get texts from people worried about their parents' health or, as we get older, from concerned friends after a less-than-stellar doctor's visit. It's also why I personally made the switch. It's why it's so hard to find anyone making fitness bands anymore.
The only problem is that technology moves quickly. Health is notoriously slow.
The Apple Watch has gotten more clever updates than I can count. So many that the Series 9, Ultra 2, and second-generation SE are completely different devices than the original Watch. (I, for one, am a huge fan of last year's double-tap gesture.) But even the most ardent Apple Watch fans can't deny that the updates feel more iterative with each passing year. Aside from the launch of the Ultra in 2022, there hasn't been an industry-shaking update since the Series 4.
Not for lack of trying. There have been multiple rumors that Apple is working on features like hypertension and sleep apnea detection, as well as that holy grail of all health tech, noninvasive blood sugar monitoring. But the raison d'être that has made the smartwatch so successful – the fact that it can save lives – is also the reason it has been kept in limbo. If people believe this technology can save lives, it will have to meet stricter regulations than any other consumer device.
Even the most passionate Apple Watch fans can't deny that the updates feel more iterative with each passing year
That's a good thing! FDA approval is there to protect consumers and ensure safety precautions. But it also means Apple is stuck in some ways. For better or worse, consumer expectations in this space are incredibly high. Yet advanced health features require companies to walk the fine line between regulatory approval, accuracy, and patents. All of this requires an incredible amount of resources and time. (One only has to look at Apple's legal battle with medical device maker Masimo over blood oxygen technology to understand why Samsung beat Apple to the punch and developed an FDA-approved sleep apnea feature.)
Essentially, the Apple Watch is roughly where the iPhone was a few years ago—solid but minor updates with a vague sense that something big might be coming. But while generative AI has breathed new life into smartphones, no one has yet figured out how best to put it into a smartwatch. Based on what we saw at WWDC, Apple intelligence won't be coming to the Watch anytime soon, either. So where does the Apple Watch stand in the next decade?
There is always the possibility that Apple will conjure up an industry-first health feature out of nowhere. Just a few days ago Bloomberg And 9to5Mac both reported that the long-delayed sleep apnea feature may still be coming. But without health, Apple will have to go the more traditional route. Bigger screens. Better battery life. Improved sensors. More in-depth fitness features to rival Garmin, Polar, and Suunto. More ways to integrate with other Apple devices. New, non-health-related ways to improve your life. Apple is in a tough spot, but in the case of the ECG, it was worth the wait. The next time Tim Cook takes the stage, he might not be demonstrating how a technology saves your life, but give him time.